Method measures the climate benefits of replacing fossil fuels

To understand how sustainability is affected in each part of the forest value chain, methods are needed that can describe the climate benefits that arise when bio-based products replace fossil-based alternatives. Throughout 2024, researchers at Mistra Digital Forest have been developing methods for measuring this so-called substitution benefit. It will be included in a new tool, BioMapp, which describes the sustainability of the raw material's journey, from forest to final product.

In order to understand the climate impact of forest products and how forestry contributes to emission reductions, methods are needed to calculate the climate benefits achieved when bio-based materials and products replace fossil-based ones that have a higher climate impact, such as plastics, steel and concrete. The extent of this substitution effect depends on what is produced, where it is produced, and what it replaces. The substitution effect might also change over time as the climate impact of the product being replaced could decrease.

Calculating the impact of political climate decisions

As part of Mistra Digital Forest, researchers at IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute have developed a method for calculating the substitution effect. This is part of the work of developing sustainability indicators that show how various dimensions of sustainability - climate, biodiversity, economic and social factors - are affected by forestry, and by other factors downstream in the value chain. The indicators are all included in a visualisation tool called BioMapp. It allows everyone, from the forestry sector to policy makers, to track sustainability impacts at every stage of the value chain - from forest to final product.

- What distinguishes our method is that it calculates a climate improvement scenario where the substitution effect changes over time. Instead of assuming that the substitution effect is constant, or the opposite - that we will reach all our climate goals - this method is based on climate-related policy decisions. With their help, we can estimate how the substitution effect will change in the future, says Martin Erlandsson, researcher at IVL.

 ‘An essential perspective’

There are different ways of measuring the substitution effect, this particular methodology follows international climate reporting.

- There is intense debate about how we should use the forests, whether they should be left untouched in order to store carbon, or be used for products that reduce the use of fossil carbon. If we don't use the forest, other raw materials are required to bring products to market. In order to understand what happens when we stop using the forest, the substitution benefit is a necessary perspective, Martin Erlandsson concludes.